The Forgotten Ones

By MV May 27th 2015

While everyone is searching for the next shiny new toy at WR and RB don’t forget to find value in the forgotten 2nd and 3rd year players. The fantasy masses always want to be the one that finds the new up and coming guy. “I drafted ODB as my 6th WR and completely dominated my league.” Good luck with that strategy in your 2015 season.

The NFL offensive playbooks are very complicated. The college game is much slower with less-than-professional competition sometimes on the field. A rookie coming in has to learn the plays, the play calling, off the field adjustments, first big payday in life (hopefully), and we haven’t even stepped on the field yet. Timing, timing, and timing through repetition is the key to winning the trust of an Offensive Coordinator and Quarterback. That said, after a quiet rookie or 2nd year season players often go over looked.

Is Tevin Coleman (Current ADP 6th round) a better value than Devonte Freeman (Current ADP 8th round)? Or is Ameer Abdullah (9th round) going to produce more than Theo Riddick (Blog-Devonta-freeman-rb-atlanta-falcons17th round). Obviously it is May and this is all contingent on who gets the playing time, but the point is that the early consensus always favors the unknown over incumbent. The question is why? Theo and Devonta both had decent seasons, why is it that we are drawn to the unknown? A lot of coaches are signing up for the logic of having bullpens of talented key offensive players. Have you looked at the Colts WR core? TY, Andre, Donte Montcrief then they still draft Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Tre Mason looked like he was going to be the next bell cow for Coach Fisher (and still might), but the fantasy world was shocked when they took Todd Gurley, the best RB in years with their first selection. Breshad Perriman is going in the 12th round while Marlon Brown is going in the 20th. Remember Marlon broke out in 2013 and then regressed in 2014. The point, I’m getting there, teams are stacking up for competitive psychology, additional support, and more. Injuries, unforeseen issues, and slow starts make up the need for teams to bulk up the bench. This is an offensive league. Every Offensive Coordinator is adopting the committee approach to keep players fresh and in rotation. Teams are also now better prepared for the “next man up” scenario.

Let’s look at some other rookie early Average Draft Position’s:
Nelson Algholor Round 10
Breshad Perriman Round 11
Kevin White Round 8
Amari Cooper Round 5
Melvin Gordon Round 3
Todd Gurley Round 4
TJ Yeldon Round 6
Phillip Dorsett Round 14

Now let’s look at some 2nd and 3rd year player Average Draft Position’s:
Isaiah Crowell Round 7
Charles Sims Round 11
Bishop Sankey Round 11
Kenny Stills Round 12
Donte Montcrief Round 12
James White Round 14
Austin Seferian-Jenkins Round 15
Cordarelle Patterson Round 12
True some of these players will turn out to be fantasy busts. The draft is an art that is won by the person that finds the most value with every round. Just glancing at the two lists the rookie list looks a lot more exciting because they are new, but the 2nd list will likely outscore the rookie list. That is with an ADP above of 7.6 for the rookies and 11.8 for the 2nd and 3rd year guys. You will rarely find value drafting a rookie in Re-Draft Leagues.

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