Eight Wide Receivers being under/over drafted


By MV July 26th 2015


At this point in July the mock drafts are heating up and the Average Draft Positions are taking real form. While over the next 5 weeks there will be many changes to the ADP and projections it is important to take a glance at four wide receivers that are being drafted higher than we are projecting their play. Conversely we will take a look at four WR’s that, for whatever reason, are being drafted much later than we would suggest grabbing them.

This is not a sleepers and busts list. This is not an upside evaluation list. This is simply looking at eight Wide Receivers that are either positively or negatively affected by early season hype. While pre-season hype is sometimes warranted, often it outweighs the season’s production. Production in the 3rd WR slot is not always sexy. Deeper leagues covering a 4th or even 5th WR as a flex know that consistency at the position is the difference between cashing and not.

The below matrix is the overall Wide Receiver rankings by ADP and FSC projections. We used a one point per reception format.


Demaryius Thomas 5 2 +3
Anquan Boldin 44 27 +17
Brandon Lafell 39 30 +9
Doug Baldwin 64 51 +13
Jarvis Landry 26 32 -6
Martavis Bryant 25 35 -10
Nelson Agholor 31 38 -7
Charles Johnson 35 44 -9


Every draft is different, and you might not know what your opponents are going to do, however; it is important to know what the consensus thinks. The average fantasy player is much smarter now than in previous years and their ADP’s prove it. The ADP’s that are compiled by the largest sites provide us with an idea of what your draft may look like. Recognizing where the consensus is taking certain names gives us an opportunity to highlight some value picks on your cheat sheet.

While we don’t necessary love or hate the players on this list, it is important for us to recognize value. Winning is not always pretty and finding that undervalued gem is the difference between collecting cash and donating to the cause. Demaryius Thomas’ variance is only +3, but that is a big 3 spots and if it results in me stealing him at the end of the first round, consider it done. Anquan Boldin is a forgotten man. Nobody wants him. The addition of Torrey Smith running deep routes coupled with the new coaching regime’s dedication to letting Kaepernick run more should prove helpful for Anquan. I will own Anquan as my #3-4 WR in multiple leagues.

While the names on the under-drafted list could out perform their ADP; their current asking price is higher than their worth. The over-drafted WR’s above have a combined 3 years of NFL experience. Remember my article “The forgotten ones”? We have a tendency to swing for the fences by drafting the shiny new name. We all want to brag that we were the one that saw the break-out year before everyone else in the league. Oh and it is so delicious when it works out, but the cost is high. Winning is not always pretty and if you are in it to make money stay focused and recognize when the hype has a hold on a player.

Fantasy Sports Central has been in the business of developing cheat sheets since 1998 and our success can be attributed to our formula that factors in consistency.  There are all kinds of strategies to use when drafting, but our time-proven method of building a team around value and drafting next-best available works. Stay focused and recognize the hype when it happens.

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